My Account Log Out

reorder

Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to pass on 62.9% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

Aaron Jones has run more routes this season (50.3% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (37.6%).

The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to accumulate 4.2 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.

With an impressive 2.8 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Aaron Jones stands as one of the best pass-game running backs in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 9th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Vikings.

The Packers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (80.6%) versus running backs this year (80.6%).

The Packers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

More Aaron Jones Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™