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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-177/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -177.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to pass on 62.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

The model projects the Vikings to call the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.3 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

Aaron Jones has run more routes this season (50.3% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (37.6%).

The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to accumulate 4.2 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (only 55.9 per game on average).

The Packers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (80.6%) versus running backs this year (80.6%).

The Packers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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