My Account Log Out

reorder

Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+113/-147).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -147.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Aaron Jones has run more routes this year (49.0% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (37.6%).

This week, Aaron Jones is expected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.6 targets.

With an excellent 2.9 adjusted receptions per game (90th percentile) this year, Aaron Jones rates among the top pass-catching running backs in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Vikings, who are heavily favored by 7 points.

The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Vikings have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 32.8 per game) this year.

The Chicago Bears safeties project as the 5th-best unit in football this year in defending receivers.

More Aaron Jones Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™