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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Atlanta Falcons defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (35.6 per game) this year.

Aaron Jones has been used more as a potential target this year (49.9% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (37.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 6-point favorite in this week's game.

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 55.8 per game on average).

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's unit has been excellent this year, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

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