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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (62.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Minnesota Vikings.

Aaron Jones has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (49.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (37.6%).

The projections expect Aaron Jones to total 3.3 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among RBs.

Aaron Jones rates as one of the top RB receiving threats this year, averaging an outstanding 2.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.

Aaron Jones's possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 75.0% to 88.5%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 56.1 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.9 per game) this year.

The Bears safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

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