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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (62.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.

The projections expect Aaron Jones to notch 3.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Aaron Jones's 21.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 15.4.

Aaron Jones rates as one of the leading pass-game RBs this year, averaging a stellar 3.1 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

Aaron Jones's 88.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a noteable gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 75.0% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 6 points.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see just 125.3 plays on offense called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings this year (just 55.4 per game on average).

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 28.2 per game) this year.

The Titans safeties project as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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