Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 10, 2024 3:36 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.9% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
In this contest, Aaron Jones is expected by the projection model to position himself in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.3 targets.
Aaron Jones's 22.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 15.4.
Aaron Jones comes in as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging an excellent 3.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Vikings are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Vikings are anticipated by the model to run just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
The 2nd-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (just 52.8 per game on average).
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally cause lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.