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Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-108/-127).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -108.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.15 seconds per play.In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 83rd percentile among RBs with 3.3 targets.With a sizeable 11.5% Target Share (85th percentile) last year, Aaron Jones stands among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.The Vikings O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.With an excellent 3.1 adjusted receptions per game (89th percentile) last year, Aaron Jones has been as one of the leading RBs in the pass game in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Vikings have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.Aaron Jones ranks as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, catching a mere 72.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 16th percentile.The New York Giants safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league last year in covering receivers.
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