Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-175/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers have been the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.5% pass rate.
In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 89th percentile among RBs with 4.4 targets.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (a mere 53.9 per game on average).
Aaron Jones has gone out for fewer passes this season (37.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (51.3%).
Aaron Jones's receiving talent has worsened this year, totaling a measly 2.5 adjusted receptions compared to 3.5 last year.

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