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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 20

San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Packers being a big -10-point underdog in this week's game.

The 49ers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (36.2 per game) this year.

Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to garner 4.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs.

Aaron Jones grades out as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a terrific 2.6 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Packers to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Packers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 56.3 plays per game.

Aaron Jones's 40.3% Route% this year marks a noteworthy decline in his pass game utilization over last year's 51.3% figure.

Aaron Jones's 75.7% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates an impressive drop-off in his pass-catching talent over last year's 82.4% mark.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's group of LBs has been terrific this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.

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