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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 58.9% of their downs: the 9th-highest rate on the slate this week.

The Bears defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (39.3 per game) this year.

In this week's game, Aaron Jones is expected by the projections to position himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.1 targets.

This year, the poor Bears pass defense has allowed a staggering 85.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 8th-highest rate in the league.

The Chicago Bears safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a running game script.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 126.5 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

The Packers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.9 plays per game.

Aaron Jones's 15.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 20.5.

Aaron Jones's 2.5 adjusted receptions per game this season represents a meaningful drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season's 3.5 figure.

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