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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -164 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Packers to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 7th-most in the league.

In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is anticipated by the predictive model to position himself in the 85th percentile among running backs with 4.4 targets.

Aaron Jones profiles as one of the top pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a terrific 2.7 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.

Aaron Jones's 36.5% Route Participation% this year shows a meaningful drop-off in his passing game volume over last year's 51.3% mark.

Aaron Jones's 71.3% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a substantial reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season's 82.4% rate.

The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 4th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

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