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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to total 4.3 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.

The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

With a remarkable 2.9 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Aaron Jones rates as one of the top RBs in the pass game in football.

When it comes to defensive tackles pass-rushing, Carolina's collection of DTs has been very bad this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are projected by the model to run just 63.1 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (just 56.1 per game on average).

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Panthers defense this year: fewest in the league.

Aaron Jones's 36.8% Route Participation Rate this season indicates a substantial drop-off in his pass attack usage over last season's 51.3% mark.

More Aaron Jones Player Props

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