Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +136 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Aaron Jones has been one of the leading RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 2.7 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 56.4 plays per game.
Aaron Jones's 37.8% Route% this year indicates a noteworthy diminishment in his passing game utilization over last year's 51.3% rate.
Aaron Jones's 71.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a significant drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 82.4% mark.

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