Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

My Account Log Out

reorder

Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+131/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Aaron Jones has run a route on 58.9% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accrue 5.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

More Aaron Jones Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow