Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accumulate 4.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has been a big part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 13.2% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has been among the best pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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