Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 12:00 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-177/+131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -163 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -177.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 65.2% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to garner 4.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 13.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has been among the best running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.

Favors Under

The Packers are a big 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 82.8% to 62.1%.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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