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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accrue 4.3 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among running backs.

Aaron Jones has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 13.8% this year, which places him in the 94th percentile among RBs.

The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Aaron Jones has been among the top pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a stellar 3.6 receptions per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense as the 2nd-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.

The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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