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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+112/-142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +122 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing teams have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accrue 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.

Aaron Jones has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 13.2% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among running backs.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Aaron Jones has been among the leading RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 3.5 receptions per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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