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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Vikings as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is projected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.6 targets.

Aaron Jones has posted significantly more air yards this year (7.0 per game) than he did last year (-4.0 per game).

Aaron Jones's 23.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 15.4.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Vikings being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

The Minnesota Vikings have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 51.1 plays per game.

The Colts pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.4%) to running backs this year (79.4%).

This year, the formidable Indianapolis Colts pass defense has given up the 9th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing running backs: a measly 7.2 YAC.

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