My Account Log Out

reorder

Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 130.4 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Lions defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (42.2 per game) this year.

In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is expected by the model to finish in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.8 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 52.6 per game on average).

The Lions defense has surrendered the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 26.0) vs. RBs this year.

Since the start of last season, the formidable Detroit Lions defense has surrendered a mere 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the smallest rate in the NFL.

The Lions safeties profile as the best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

More Aaron Jones Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™