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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to pass on 62.9% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

Aaron Jones has run more routes this season (50.3% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (37.6%).

The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to accumulate 4.2 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.

Aaron Jones has accrued a massive 3.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 9th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Vikings.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.96 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

The Packers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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