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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-128/-101).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -101.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (62.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Minnesota Vikings.

Aaron Jones has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (49.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (37.6%).

The projections expect Aaron Jones to total 3.3 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among RBs.

Aaron Jones has accrued a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This might not seem like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Aaron Jones's 30.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season indicates a substantial gain in his receiving skills over last season's 20.0 rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 56.1 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.9 per game) this year.

This year, the imposing Bears defense has conceded the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing RBs: a meager 5.9 yards.

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