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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (62.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.

The projections expect Aaron Jones to notch 3.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Aaron Jones has accrued a monstrous 5.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Aaron Jones's 21.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 15.4.

Aaron Jones's 32.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a remarkable boost in his receiving prowess over last season's 20.0 mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 6 points.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see just 125.3 plays on offense called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings this year (just 55.4 per game on average).

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 28.2 per game) this year.

This year, the stout Tennessee Titans defense has yielded a puny 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 3rd-best in football.

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