Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers have been the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.5% pass rate.
In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 89th percentile among RBs with 4.4 targets.
Aaron Jones has put up a massive 1.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not seem too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
With a fantastic 28.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (93rd percentile) this year, Aaron Jones rates among the best pass-game RBs in football.
Aaron Jones's 7.6 adjusted yards per target this season marks a remarkable gain in his receiving talent over last season's 5.8 mark.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (a mere 53.9 per game on average).
Aaron Jones has gone out for fewer passes this season (37.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (51.3%).
Aaron Jones's 67.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a material diminishment in his receiving ability over last year's 82.4% mark.

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