Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is predicted by the projections to secure a spot in the 90th percentile among running backs with 4.4 targets.
Aaron Jones has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 13.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Aaron Jones ranks in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs this year with a staggering 0.8% of his team's air yards accumulated.
With an excellent 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Aaron Jones rates among the top pass-catching RBs in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Vikings, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.0 per game) this year.
Aaron Jones's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 82.4% to 61.7%.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has given up the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 20.0) vs. running backs this year.
The Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

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