Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Aaron Jones comes in as one of the top pass-catching running backs this year, averaging an outstanding 22.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.
Aaron Jones's 12.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows a remarkable growth in his effectiveness in space over last season's 7.4% figure.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 56.4 plays per game.
Aaron Jones's 37.8% Route% this year indicates a noteworthy diminishment in his passing game utilization over last year's 51.3% rate.
Aaron Jones has accumulated a feeble -5.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 6th percentile among RBs.

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