Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is projected by the projection model to slot into the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.0 targets.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.1 plays per game.
Aaron Jones's 41.3% Route Participation Rate this season marks a meaningful decline in his passing attack utilization over last season's 51.3% rate.
When talking about air yards, Aaron Jones ranks in the measly 8th percentile among running backs this year, with just -4.0 per game.
Aaron Jones's 73.1% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last year's 82.4% figure.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 9th-fewest in the league.

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