Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
In this week's game, Aaron Jones is predicted by our trusted projection set to land in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.0 targets.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year.
With a terrific 27.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (94th percentile) this year, Aaron Jones places among the leading RB receiving threats in football.
Aaron Jones's 6.7 adjusted yards per target this season marks an impressive improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 5.8 figure.

Favors Under

With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.46 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.
Aaron Jones's 39.8% Route% this year reflects a noteworthy decrease in his passing offense volume over last year's 51.3% rate.
Aaron Jones has posted a mere -4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 11th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones's 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year signifies a substantial regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 82.4% mark.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (64.8%) vs. running backs this year (64.8%).

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