Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Aaron Jones has run a route on 58.9% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accrue 5.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Aaron Jones has put up a paltry -4.0 air yards per game this year: just 6th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones's pass-game efficiency has declined this season, compiling just 5.47 yards-per-target compared to a 6.77 rate last season.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. RBs this year, surrendering 4.98 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.

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