Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+110/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.3% pass rate.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
Aaron Jones has run a route on 57.0% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to total 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones's ability to generate extra yardage has gotten better this year, averaging 9.35 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 7.50 mark last year.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Aaron Jones has accrued a paltry -3.0 air yards per game this year: just 8th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has accumulated significantly fewer receiving yards per game (22.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).

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