Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Jones has run a route on 58.1% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 94th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accrue 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this year, compiling 9.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 7.50 mark last year.
The New York Jets linebackers profile as the 6th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Aaron Jones has put up a paltry -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 11th percentile among running backs.

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