Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to earn 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 13.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has compiled a whopping 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Aaron Jones has been among the leading pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 27.0 yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
Aaron Jones has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the league among running backs, averaging a terrific 7.13 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.8% to 79.0%.