Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accumulate 4.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has been a big part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 13.2% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has posted a whopping 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.