Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 65.2% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to garner 4.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 13.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has accrued a colossal 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Packers are a big 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 82.8% to 62.1%.
The Chicago Bears defense has allowed the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 26.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.

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