Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accrue 4.3 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 13.8% this year, which places him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Aaron Jones's skills in grinding out extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, notching 8.04 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 6.39 rate last year.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense as the 2nd-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
Aaron Jones has put up a meager -4.0 air yards per game this year: just 6th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has compiled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (27.0) this season than he did last season (36.0).
Aaron Jones's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling just 6.16 yards-per-target compared to a 7.75 rate last season.

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