Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to total 4.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has been a key part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 14.5% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Aaron Jones has totaled a paltry -4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 7th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has accrued significantly fewer receiving yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (36.0).
Aaron Jones's receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, compiling just 6.16 yards-per-target compared to a 7.75 rate last season.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.77 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.

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