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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to earn 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among RBs.

Aaron Jones has been a key part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 14.0% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Aaron Jones's ability to generate extra yardage has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 7.86 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 6.39 rate last year.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has shown bad efficiency against RBs this year, surrendering 6.45 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Opposing QBs have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.

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