Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to earn 5.1 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Aaron Jones has compiled a paltry -6.0 air yards per game this year: just 2nd percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating just 5.31 yards-per-target vs a 6.77 figure last year.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 26.0) to running backs this year.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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