Aaron Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+333/-628).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +415 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +333.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Aaron Jones has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 14.7% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones's 20.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 89th percentile for RBs.
Aaron Jones grades out in the 96th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.38 per game.
The Detroit Lions linebackers project as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Aaron Jones has accumulated a mere -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 3rd percentile among RBs.
The Detroit Lions defense has allowed the least touchdowns through the air in the league to RBs: 0.00 per game this year.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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