Aaron Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+413/-903).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +431 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +413.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Jones has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 10.7% this year, which places him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones's 17.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 85th percentile for RBs.
Aaron Jones grades out in the 89th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.20 per game.
The New York Jets defense has surrendered the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in football to RBs: 0.20 per game this year.
The New York Jets linebackers profile as the 6th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Aaron Jones has put up a paltry -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 11th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 82.8% to 76.9%.

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