Aaron Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+434/-988).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 11.1% this year, which ranks him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones's 18.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 88th percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

Aaron Jones has compiled a paltry -6.0 air yards per game this year: just 2nd percentile among RBs.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has given up the least passing TDs in the league to RBs: 0.00 per game this year.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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