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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Carries
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

In this game, Aaron Jones is anticipated by the predictive model to land in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs with 13.8 rush attempts.

Aaron Jones has earned 57.6% of his offense's run game usage this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs.

The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 6th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 40.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings since the start of last season (just 56.4 per game on average).

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