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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Carries
Player Prop Week 15

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Vikings, who are heavily favored by 7 points.

In this game, Aaron Jones is projected by the projections to find himself in the 76th percentile among RBs with 14.6 carries.

Out of all RBs, Aaron Jones ranks in the 88th percentile for carries this year, taking on 57.8% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the least run-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.2% run rate.

The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Vikings have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Bears safeties project as the best group of safeties in football this year when it comes to run defense.

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