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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Carries
Player Prop Week 13

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/-100).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.

The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to accrue 14.5 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.

Among all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 88th percentile for carries this year, comprising 58.4% of the workload in his offense's run game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Vikings as the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 40.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 63.0 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The Minnesota Vikings have called the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 56.5 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Cardinals safeties grade out as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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