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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Carries
Player Prop Week 10

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Vikings are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally cause lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.

In this contest, Aaron Jones is projected by the projection model to finish in the 86th percentile among RBs with 17.1 carries.

Aaron Jones has been a much bigger part of his offense's ground game this season (61.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (50.2%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 4th-least run-focused offense in the league (37.1% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Minnesota Vikings.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Vikings are anticipated by the model to run just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.

The 2nd-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (just 52.8 per game on average).

The Jaguars defensive ends rank as the 5th-best group of DEs in football this year with their run defense.

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