Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all running backs, Aaron Jones ranks in the 88th percentile for carries since the start of last season, comprising 49.1% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.
As it relates to blocking for ball-carriers (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.
As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Denver's unit has been terrible this year, grading out as the worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 10th-least run-oriented offense in football (37.2% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Packers.
The leading projections forecast the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Packers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.2 plays per game.

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