Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Jones has garnered 49.2% of his offense's rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
The Packers O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers to be the 10th-least run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 37.3% run rate.
The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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