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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Carries
Player Prop Week 18

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a running game script.

The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to earn 16.4 carries in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.

While Aaron Jones has received 50.2% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Green Bay's ground game in this week's contest at 63.4%.

The Packers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league last year at opening holes for runners.

As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Chicago's DE corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in football. in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Packers to run on 41.1% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 126.5 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

The Packers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.9 plays per game.

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