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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Carries
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Among all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 80th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 48.1% of the workload in his team's run game.

In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.

The Vikings linebackers project as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Packers to run on 37.3% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

At the moment, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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