Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 81st percentile for carries this year, making up 45.8% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.
As it relates to run support (and the ramifications it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.
The Steelers defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst DE corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The projections expect the Packers to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 40.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.46 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.

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