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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Carries
Player Prop Week 10

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -127.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Among all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 81st percentile for carries this year, making up 45.8% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.

As it relates to run support (and the ramifications it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.

The Steelers defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst DE corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.

The projections expect the Packers to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 40.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.46 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.

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